A lot of discussion has been going on about how many women identify with Sen. Clinton's struggle to break the glass ceiling. I am told that they feel righteous anger at seeing yet another highly qualified and powerful woman taking second place to a charming but underqualified man. I also read that many of them will not vote for Obama and at best stay home in November should Sen. Clinton not be the nominee. Couple that with polling that says that poorer whites won't vote for Sen. Obama and clearly the Superdelegates must make Clinton the nominee to avoid disaster.
Sadly if these things are true then the disaster is upon us already.
Why, because the only way she wins is if the rules are changed late in the game. All of the Democratic candidates agreed that Michigan and Florida would not count. The popular vote is not how the party directly chooses it's nominee.
If Sen Obama wins the majority of the pleged delegates under the agreed-to rules of the game but is then denied the nomination, it is a fair bet to predict that the party loses it's African American support. At best it stays home, at worst it goes Republican big enough to produce a landslide. The defection doesn't have to be all that large to produce the effect.
Why would they do this against their own interest? Because many would see the rules of the game yet again being changed midgame to benefit a white person. Why would this have traction? Because it is perceived to happen to them all the time. Their righteous fury will most likely be even more intense than that felt by women now.
I honestly dont see how this ends well either way.
Obama can't win with just the black vote. Clinton can't win without it, but likely can't get nominated without alienating it.
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